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Thesis is a place where people pay a solo founder monthly, suggest one experiment for them to run, and read what happened — good or bad. This is one of those results. How it works.

Negative · high confidenceScorecard 002 · published 13 Apr 2026

Search ads on the words people type when ready to buy

What they expected: Search ads on those words will bring sign-ups in at €9 or less.

Whose idea
Rui Santos
Founder
A solo founderAI writing toolRun by Mara Koch
Budget
€500
When it ran
24 Mar 2026 – 11 Apr 2026
The number being judged — What one sign-up cost, against the target
€9€313.4× what we aimed for
Manually verified · 14 Apr

Checked against an export from the founder's own product database, read line by line against the counting rule agreed before the run. Not against screenshots or the copy that shipped — the pilot does not host those yet, which is why this is the middle badge and not the strongest one.

ConfidencehighStopped early. 61 people, 18 days. One ad platform.
What was built

Twelve keywords chosen for buying intent rather than volume, each sent to a dedicated landing page matching the search term rather than the home page. Capped at €25 a day, exact match only, with brand terms excluded so the spend could not be credited with traffic that was already coming.

Written down before it ran, alongside the claim it was meant to test. The pilot does not yet host screenshots or the copy that shipped — until it does, this is the whole description, and it is thinner than it should be for judging craft.

How this was counted

Ad spend divided by the sign-ups that arrived through the campaign link within seven days. Stopped at 60% of budget once it was clear. Published in full, and the rest of the money rolled over.

Attributed under agreed methodologyStopped early61 people, 18 daysOne ad platform

The number moved the wrong way, or did not move at all. Published in full.

Read the original thesisChallenge window closed 27 Apr 2026